Bitcoin On The Brink: 50% Drop Possible Ahead Of Halving, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts and investors are keeping a watchful eye on the ever-volatile cryptocurrency market as the clock ticks closer to the highly anticipated halving event in April 2024.

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known crypto analyst with a substantial following, has raised concerns about the potential for a significant price drop in Bitcoin before this upcoming halving.

In a recent interview with Scott Melker, Cowen delved into the historical patterns surrounding the alpha coin’s price movements in the lead-up to halving events.

He highlighted that, while he didn’t explicitly predict a 50% drop, historical data suggests that such a decline is not out of the question. Looking at past cycles, Cowen revealed that BTC typically experiences a sharp decrease in value prior to a halving event. 

In his words, “What normally happens is Bitcoin halves [in price] before the halving, and then people are like, ‘Oh, well, that’s what the halving meant.’”

Historical Precedent: Price Behavior Before Halving

To illustrate his point, Cowen pointed to the previous market cycles, notably the drop that occurred ahead of the pandemic and the one prior to that. Each time, the king coin’s value plummeted by approximately 50% before embarking on its remarkable bull run. 

The commonality of these drops, especially the ones that initiated in the summer, led Cowen to ponder whether the current market might still be within the bounds of a 50% decline. If so, it could potentially fall to around $15,000.

Cowen’s concern about a looming BTC price drop isn’t unfounded. One of the key factors contributing to this apprehension is the dwindling liquidity within the cryptocurrency market and various risk asset markets.

As liquidity decreases, assets like Bitcoin can become more susceptible to sharp declines. It’s a sign that has historically preceded significant market movements, and Cowen believes that this time could be no different.

Bitcoin’s Price Amidst Societal Unrest

On the other side of the Bitcoin spectrum, vocal crypto advocate Max Keiser shared his thoughts on the cryptocurrency’s future price trajectory. Many Bitcoin enthusiasts have been inquiring about when Bitcoin will reach the fabled $220,000 mark.

However, Keiser cautions that these levels are typically achieved “AFTER social unrest and societal breakdown are irreversibly causing havoc.” 

He pointed out that the world is currently witnessing widespread social unrest in many major cities, driven by geopolitical turmoil in several countries. Keiser’s warning rings clear: people, especially Bitcoin holders, should be prepared for the possibility of higher prices coinciding with economic collapse.

BTCUSD slightly past the halfway mark to the $29K territory. Chart: TradingView.com

The crypto market is as unpredictable as ever, with Bitcoin currently trading at $28,582 via CoinGecko, showing a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours and a 5.7% increase over the past week. 

As the community eagerly anticipates the 2024 halving event, analysts like Cowen and Bitcoin advocates like Keiser provide essential insights and warnings for both seasoned investors and newcomers alike, reinforcing the need for cautious optimism in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies.

Featured image from Business Insider

Jos Tran

Jos Tran

I'm Jos Tran, the author behind Smart Passive Income (SPI), a blog dedicated to online business and entrepreneurship. I started this blog in 2008, following in the footsteps of Pat Flynn, the founder. Being one of the leading business blogs globally, SPI attracts over 2 million readers each month. Through my content, I aim to assist individuals in generating passive income from various online sources. Join me on this transformative journey as we delve into the world of online business and uncover the strategies and tactics that have led to tremendous success for myself and countless others.

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